US-China Tariff De-escalation Does Not Signal Trade Normalisation: Fitch

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US-China Tariff De-escalation Does Not Signal Trade Normalisation: Fitch - Business Today

Quick Summary:

Fitch Ratings says the Joint Statement on US-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva, published on 12 May, appears to have significantly de-escalated the trade war between the two countries.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the agreement continued a process of “economic decoupling for strategic necessities” whereby the US would lessen its dependence on Chinese imports, but that “generalized decoupling” was not US policy.

While this would imply a smaller hit to global growth, all else equal, it would still be far higher than the 2.3% US ETR in 2024, with a near-universal 10% tariff and some higher sector-specific tariffs in place.